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Pack to Back: Investigating Backpacking and Other Backcountry and Wilderness Activities

The scientists in this study wanted to answer two questions: (1) How many people in the United States are projected to participate in four backcountry and wilderness activities in 2060 compared with participation in 2008? (2) On average, how many days per year is each person projected to participate in 2060 compared with the number of days per year in 2008?

Pack to Back: Investigating Backpacking and Other Backcountry and Wilderness Activities

Meet the Scientists!

Ken Cordell

Social Scientist

Michael Bowker

Social Scientist

What Kind of Scientist Did This Research?

Social scientist: This scientist studies human societies and human behaviors.

Thinking About Science

Science is important to human society. Because humans are
curious, they have always tried to explain things that are not easy to understand. Scientists explore mysteries from the depths of the ocean to outer space. Sometimes scientists work to describe, understand, or explain what they have observed. Sometimes scientists unexpectedly discover new information, facts, or events.

One goal of science is to discover new relationships or things. Another goal is to explore what happened in the past. Still another science goal is to project what might happen in the future. In this research, the scientists were interested in how humans might behave differently in the future. When science helps us to understand what might happen in the future, we can plan for a better future.

Thinking About the Environment

Do you know the difference between a backcountry area and a wilderness area? These two areas are similar in many ways. One of the main differences between them has to do with a legal designation (figure 3a-b).

Ken standing by an entrance to a hiking post — **Figure 3a**. Dr. Cordell had already hiked a few miles in the White River National Forest before reaching the boundary between national forest backcountry and Maroon Bells Snowmass Wilderness in Colorado. Notice the small sign at the bottom of the post. This sign tells visitors that motorized equipment, including bicycles, are prohibited in wilderness areas. If you were riding on an ATV and came to the wilderness boundary, what would you need to do?

A small hiking sign showing no motorized vehicles are allowed on the trail — **Figure 3b**. In some wilderness areas, you might see a sign like the one in the smaller photograph.

Backcountry areas are natural primitive areas, with little more than trails and unpaved roads among their natural wild features. Backcountry areas may sometimes include human developments (figure 4). Wilderness areas are special backcountry areas. Wilderness areas designated under the Wilderness Act of 1964 are Federal lands. The Federal Government manages these lands on behalf of every American. These Federal lands are a part of the U.S. National Wilderness Preservation System (NWPS). When an area becomes a part of the NWPS, certain activities are prohibited. Most notably, no motorized or mechanized equipment or human developments are allowed in designated wilderness areas.

People skiing in the backcountry — **Figure 4**. Backcountry areas, unlike wilderness areas, may have human developments, and people may use motorized and mechanized equipment within backcountry areas. Photo courtesy of Forest Service, Northern Region

People often participate in the same kinds of outdoor recreation activities in backcountry areas and wilderness areas. People may, however, use motorized and mechanized equipment in backcountry areas. Examples of motorized equipment include all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), off-road vehicles, bicycles, airplanes, snowmobiles, and motorboats.

When doing research to understand the future of certain types of outdoor recreation activities, the scientists in this study identified activities that could be done in both backcountry and in wilderness areas. Look closely at figures 3 and 4. Based on what you now know about backcountry and wilderness areas, name two outdoor recreation activities that can be done in both areas. Name two activities that can be done in backcountry areas but not in wilderness areas.

Introduction

Backcountry managers and wilderness managers want to do the best they can to protect the environments they manage. These managers also want people to enjoy the time they spend visiting backcountry and wilderness areas.

To do the best job, managers consider the number of people who are likely to participate in different backcountry and wilderness activities. Managers also want to have some idea of how many people will participate in these activities in the future. Managers want to know this number because too many people visiting backcountry and wilderness areas can reduce visitor enjoyment. Too many people might also reduce environmental quality by damaging animal and plant habitats.

The scientists in this study wanted to help backcountry and wilderness managers by projecting participation rates for different backcountry and wilderness activities. The scientists wanted to project the numbers of participants in backcountry and wilderness activities by the year 2060. The scientists identified four activities that occur in wilderness or other backcountry areas. These activities were challenge activities, horseback riding on trails, hiking, and visiting primitive areas (figures 5–8c).

People rock climbing — **Figure 5**. Challenge activities include rock climbing, mountain climbing, mountain biking, and cave exploring. Look closely to find the rock climbers in this photo. They are
climbing a mountain in Scotland called
Buachaille Etive Mòr
(boo ka la ə tiv mȯr).

People horseback riding on a trail — **Figure 6**. Many people enjoy riding horses in backcountry and wilderness areas. Photo courtesy of Discover Outdoors, http://www.discoveroutdoors.com.

People hiking waling over a stream — **Figure 7**. Hiking is one of the most popular backcountry activities. These kids are hiking in Scapegoat Wilderness in Montana. Photo courtesy of Forest Service, Northern Region.

Father and son hiking in the wilderness — **Figure 8a**. Visiting primitive areas includes activities like backpacking and primitive camping. Here, David Baldwin (on the right) and his father Dave are backpacking in Cumberland Island Wilderness. Photo by Babs McDonald.

A map of the United States highlighting the state of Georgia — **Figure 8b**. Cumberland Island Wilderness and
Okefenokee Wilderness are in southern Georgia.

Tents set up on a wooden platform with a canoe infront — **Figure 8c**. Many people camp in the Okefenokee
Wilderness. The Okefenokee Wilderness is a large swamp. The only way to travel in the Okefenokee Wilderness is by canoe or kayak. Because the Okefenokee Wilderness is a swamp, campers must set up camp on wooden platforms. Photo by Babs McDonald.

Number Crunch

Reflection Section

Methods

The scientists used existing information to make their projections. First, they looked at data collected as part of a national survey of outdoor recreation. This survey included questions about participation in a number of outdoor recreation activities, including the four backcountry and wilderness activities shown in figures 5–8a and 8c.

This national survey asked questions of a random sample of American adults. The number of people reporting participation in 2008 in each activity was recorded. Then, the scientists identified the demographic characteristics associated with people participating. For example, the scientists identified the percentage of women and the percentage of men who said they participated in mountain climbing in 2008.

This survey helped the scientists determine whether people with different demographic characteristics would be more or less likely to participate in backcountry and wilderness activities (figure 9).

Figure 9. The scientists determined the relationship between participation and demographic characteristics.
Demographic and Other Characteristics	Probable Effect on Backcountry and Wilderness Participation
African American	Less likely to participate
Native American/American Indian	More likely to participate
Asian American	Less likely to participate
Hispanic	Less likely to participate, except for day hiking
More education	More likely to participate
Higher income	More likely to participate
Gender	Males more likely to participate
Living in a city	Less likely to participate
Living close to backcountry areas	More likely to participate
Continuing climate change	Somewhat less likely to participate

The scientists then estimated the total number of people in the United States who might have participated in these activities in 2008. The scientists based their estimates on the demographic information they collected and compared it with U.S. demographics in the entire U.S. population. For example, assume that 25 percent of the people over age 60 answering the survey reported they had gone hiking in 2008. The scientists would have calculated a number representing 25 percent of the entire U.S. population over age 60 in 2008.

To learn how kids spend their time outdoors, read “Time Out!”

Why Are Random Samples Powerful?

When a random sample is taken, every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the
sample. A population is the total number of individuals in an area. A sample contains only a percentage of the population
from which the sample is taken. Because every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected in a random sample, scientists assume that their random sample accurately represents the population.

m&ms on a counter — Photo by Babs McDonald.

For example, think about having a large bag (about 1 pound) of M&Ms®. You might want to know how many blue M&Ms® are in the bag. Instead of counting the entire bag, you decide to take a sample. You shake up the bag and pour out 50 M&Ms®. You then count the number of blue M&Ms®. You know that an average pound bag of M&Ms® contains about 660 M&Ms®. Out of the 50 M&Ms®, 10 M&Ms®, or 20 percent of your random sample, are blue. You calculate 20 percent of 660. You estimate that 132 M&Ms® in the bag are blue. You feel confident that your estimate is close to the actual number of blue M&Ms® because your sample was taken randomly. You can do this experiment yourself at home or in your classroom.

Scientists would report this number for the total number of people over age 60 hiking in 2008 (table 1). Remember, the
estimates shown in table 1 were calculated from a random sample of Americans who answered the survey questions.

Table 1. U.S. participation in 2008 for the four backcountry and wilderness activities. Source: The National Survey on Recreation and the Environment.
Backcountry and Wilderness Activities	Number of Participants (in millions)	Percentage of the Population Participating	Average Number of Days Per Participant	Total Days in 2008 (in millions)
Challenge activities: mountain climbing, rock climbing, mountain biking, caving	25	11	4.8	120
Horseback riding on trails	17	7	16.3	262
Hiking	79	33	22.9	1,826
Visiting primitive areas: backpacking, primitive camping	91	38	13.2	1,233

The scientists then looked at population projections for the year 2060. Population projections told the scientists how many women and how many men, for example, are likely to be living in the United States in 2060. The scientists identified population projections for a number of demographic characteristics (see figure 9). The scientists created a mathematical equation, or model. They entered this model into a computer. In the model, the scientists included the likelihood that individuals with certain demographic characteristics would participate in an activity. The scientists included information from 2008, the population projections to 2060, and demographic information. The scientists used the mathematical model to project likely participation in each of the four backcountry and wilderness activities in 2060. Then, the scientists compared the projections for 2060 with the information they had for 2008.

How Do You Read Tables with Large Numbers?

Scientific tables with large numbers usually present the large numbers in shorthand, which makes the table easier to read. In the first column in table 1, for example, the words, “in millions” is in parentheses. This header label means that, for the number of people participating in challenge activities, you should add 6 zeroes to 25, making it 25,000,000. Likewise, you should add 6 zeroes to the other numbers in the first and last columns to understand the true value.

What do you do when the shorthand number includes a decimal point? Insert a comma in the place of the decimal point, and substitute the number behind the decimal point for the first zero. For example, 25.3 would be written as 25,300,000 in table 1.

Reflection Section

Findings

The scientists projected an increase in participation in the four backcountry and wilderness activities (table 2).

Table 2. More people overall may be participating in each of the four backcountry and wilderness activities in 2060 compared with the number in 2008.
Backcountry and Wilderness Activities	Projected Number of Participants in 2060 (in millions)	Projected Average Number of Days Per Participant in 2060	Total Days in 2060 (in millions)
Challenge activities: mountain climbing, rock climbing, mountain biking, caving	46.4	4.71	219
Horseback riding on trails	30.6	16.8	503
Hiking	134.4	24.2	3,330
Visiting primitive areas: backpacking, primitive camping	141	13.1	1,909

Compare table 2 with table 1.

The scientists projected that the percentage of people age 16 or older participating in backcountry and wilderness activities will increase between 2008 and 2060 (figure 10).

A graph showing type of activity vs percent increase in participation between 2008 and 2060. — **Figure 10**. The projected percentage increase in the number of people age 16 or older who will participate in backcountry and wilderness activities between 2008 and 2060.

Reflection Section

Discussion

The scientists said that if their projections are correct, more people will want to use backcountry and wilderness areas in the future. If the number of people hiking increases, for example, then more people will be hiking on the same trails. This increased participation will change the experience of hiking on backcountry and wilderness trails in the future. The scientists found that when climate change is included in their models, the number of people participating in backcountry and wilderness activities in the future may still increase, but the rate of growth will likely be lower.

Reflection Section

Adapted from Cordell, H.K.; Bowker, J.M. 2012. Long-term projections of backcountry recreation use. International Journal of Wilderness. 19(2): 11-16.

Part Of

Pack to Back (Wilderness 50 Monograph Series) - Vol. 1 No. 9

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What Is a Natural Inquirer Monograph?

3 Natural Inquirer monograph covers.

A Natural Inquirer monograph is a short publication that focuses on a single research study. Monographs are written for a middle school audience, but they can also be adapted for both high school students and advanced upper elementary students.

Monographs include:

One article based on a published, peer-reviewed research paper; the article keeps the research paper format (see more below) but is written in language students can understand.
A FACTivity, which is an activity to complete after reading the article. The FACTivity helps reinforce major science concepts from the article. These activities are designed to be easy to implement, with few material requirements and options for adapting them for your audience or available resources. Some monograph may have two FACTivities.
A short “Welcome to the monograph” article about key background information and science concepts.
A glossary of new terms from the article or the introductory materials.
A list of related Natural Inquirer publications as well as outside references.
Standards correlations, including Next Generation Science Standards, addressed in both the article and the FACTivity.

Monographs may also include additional essays (called spotlights), other activities (like crossword puzzles or vocabulary challenges), and more.

A screenshot of the article resource tile for "A Flame Changer" showing the three different format option buttons.

Reading Modes

Monographs are available in three different formats:

Hard copies can be ordered from the website and shipped, all free of charge.
PDF versions of the printed monograph can be downloaded free on the website. The PDF version directly replicates the content and layout of the printed version.
The “Read Distraction Free” option allows the monograph article to open in its own window, without the rest of the website being visible. “Read Distraction Free” is available on the article version of the monograph, which can be opened under the “Articles” tab. This version allows readers to scroll to particular sections of the article using the sidebar menu on the left side of the screen. This version also has interactive Reflection Sections and Number Crunches. Students can enter their answers, submit them, and then receive the correct answers to double-check their work. Submitted answers are not saved on the website and will disappear once the window is closed.

What's in a Natural Inquirer Article?

Here, we'll go into more detail about the parts of a Natural Inquirer article and give you some ideas about how they can be used.

Meet the Scientists
This section introduces the scientists (and others) who worked on the study. In their own words, they each share a memorable science experience, a favorite research project, or something they learned during the course of their education or research.

Use this section to:
- Introduce kids to the variety of people who work in science
- Introduce kids to the variety of scientific fields and give brief descriptions of science-related jobs
- Explore ways that people interact with science every day
Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Crosscutting Concepts: Influence of Science, Engineering, and Technology on Society and the Natural World
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many of the scientists and engineers featured in this section are also featured on our collector cards. Learn more about their work, how they got interested in their fields, and interesting projects they worked on. Cards can be printed as posters, too.
Thinking About Science
This section briefly describes a concept about science or scientific research. This overview can touch on topics like
- study type (longitudinal study, quantitative vs. qualitative data),
- behaviors of scientists (conducting literature reviews, collaborating with other specialists, replicating earlier studies),
- the practice of science (the scientific method, engineering design, data collection, randomization, controls and variables),
- or other aspects of science (bias, correlation vs. causation).
Use this section to:
- Reinforce steps in the scientific method and the process of science
- Encourage students to think about the practice of science and what it can and cannot tell us
- Consider the many types of scientific study and what information each type can provide
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Life Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for other or related scientific topics on our website (e.g. “longitudinal study,” “bias,” or “sampling”).
Thinking About the Environment
This section provides a brief overview of a topic or concept in environmental/life science. The topic or concept is directly related to the research study that follows. Examples of topics include the carbon cycle, the water cycle, habitat fragmentation, phenology, biodiversity, and ecosystem services.

Use this section to:
- Provide important background information to help students understand the research study
- Serve as a quick reference during reading or class instruction
- Connect the research article with other activities or media on the same topic
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for more resources on life or earth science topics on our website (e.g. “habitat,” “carbon,” or “genetics”).
Introduction
This section begins the scientific article format. Much like the published, peer-reviewed study this article is based on, the introduction provides background information for the study – what is currently known and what remains unknown. The introduction culminates in the question(s) the study hopes to answer.

The introduction is also the first section with a Reflection Section. This section includes two or three questions to help kids reflect on what they’ve just learned in the Introduction. If they are using the online distraction-free reading mode, they can answer these questions directly on the website.

Use this section to:
- Review important background information that kids need to understand the study
- Connect the study to the concepts addressed in the Thinking About Science and Thinking About the Environment sections
- Understand research questions and hypotheses, including generating their own hypotheses given what they already know
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use one of the guided reading lesson plans to help kids follow the format of a scientific paper.
Methods
This section is the nuts and bolts of the study design – the who, what, when, where, why, and how of the research. Contained within the Methods section are usually maps of the study location or the set-up of study plots, as well as details about what data was collected and how.

The Methods section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Show students how experiments and studies are designed and carried out
- Explore sampling methods and randomization
- Introduce various data collection tools (e.g. camera traps, surveys, insect collection tools, weather stations, etc.)
- Explain bias and how studies are designed to remove bias
- Help students gain experience with map reading
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many Methods and Findings sections contain Number Crunches, which are simple math exercises designed to help students interact with the data from the study.
Findings
This section summarizes the data collected during the study. The Findings section usually includes data tables or graphs and highlights the significant data points from the study. This section often mentions statistical analysis or the use of computer programs to model or analyze the data, though these methods are only discussed generally.

The Findings section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Have students practice reading and interpreting graphs and tables
- Compare results between variables and controls
- Explain the concept of statistical significance
- Discuss how no data or negative results still provide valuable information
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Search the website for “map” or “graph” to find activities where students can practice making and reading maps and graphs.
Discussion
This section concludes each monograph article. In it, we summarize the main findings of the scientists’ study. Additionally, we present the scientists’ ideas about the limitations of their study, the big-picture impacts of their research, and the scientists’ plans for future study or action.

The Discussion section ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read, especially general take-aways from the study. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Discuss what conclusions can and cannot be drawn from the available data
- Explain the difference between correlation and causation
- Explore study limitations and opportunities for further study
- Brainstorm ways the study findings could be applied to real-world situations
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use the “Designing Your Own Study” resource page for videos of scientists discussing their own research studies. The page also includes educator resources to help students plan their own scientific studies.

Additional Resources on the Website

A screenshot of the product tabs for an NI monograph On the website, we pair each monograph with a variety of other resources, as well. Use the tabs on the product page to browse through the following:

Related activities, including the FACTivity for each article
An “About” essay that gives some larger context for the research the scientists conducted or more information about the science topic from the article
A glossary of all boldfaced terms from the article
A “Scientists and Collaborators” page that lists the people involved in the study; click on a researcher to reach their bio page and see what other articles they might be featured in
A “Related Content” page that lists both Natural Inquirer resources about similar topics and also outside reference materials

Article Selection and Review

Natural Inquirer partners with the USDA Forest Service, so we source research studies by Forest Service scientists that have been peer-reviewed and published in reputable journals. Some of our articles have also been created in collaboration with scientists from other Federal agencies, such as U.S. Geological Survey and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, universities, and other non-profits.

All monograph articles are reviewed by scientists who conducted the original research study to verify scientific accuracy. Monographs are also reviewed by student editorial review boards of middle or high school students before publication. Additionally, all monographs are reviewed by the Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture before publication.

A screenshot of the citation for "Lights, Camera, Tracks" Every monograph article includes a citation of its source study. Many educators pair the original research paper with our article to help more advanced students learn how to read formal research papers. The monograph article then serves as adapted primary literature, bridging the two articles.

Lessons

This lesson plan helps students explore how wilderness has been supported (or not supported) by politicians over United States history.
Lesson Plan – Wilderness 50
This lesson plan helps students explore how wilderness has been supported (or not supported) by politicians over United States history.
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Part Of

Pack to Back: Investigating Backpacking and Other Backcountry and Wilderness Activities
A graphic organizer to help kids read and think about a text. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
Lesson Plan – S.C.A.N and R.U.N.
A graphic organizer to help kids read and think about a text. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
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Students determine important parts of the text and share questions and comments about selected parts of the text. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
Lesson Plan – Double Entry
Students determine important parts of the text and share questions and comments about selected parts of the text. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
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Education Files

Project Learning Tree

If you are a Project Learning Tree trained educator, you may also use
the following activity as an added resource: “School Yard Safari.”

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Standards addressed in this Article:

What Is a Natural Inquirer Monograph?

Reading Modes

What's in a Natural Inquirer Article?

Meet the Scientists

Thinking About Science

Thinking About the Environment

Introduction

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Additional Resources on the Website

Article Selection and Review

Lessons

Education Files

Project Learning Tree

Glossary

associated

demographic

primitive

project

random

Ken Cordell

Michael Bowker

Related Resources from the Natural Inquirer

Additional Resources

Wilderness Connect

WILD Foundation

International Union for the Conservation of Nature

Protected Planet