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Wild Ways: Assessing How Climate Change May Affect Certain Wildlife

Identifying which species may be the most vulnerable to a changing climate is important. This information can help people make decisions about how to best manage the land. It can also help make better decisions to support wildlife. In this study, the scientists wanted to learn more about species living in and around the Coronado National Forest.

Wild Ways: Assessing How Climate Change May Affect Certain Wildlife

Meet the Scientists

Sharon Coe

Wildlife Ecologist

Deborah Finch

Wildlife Biologist

Megan Friggens

Ecologist

What Kind of Scientist Did This Research?

Biologist: This scientist studies living organisms and systems.
Wildlife ecologist: This kind of scientist studies the relationship of different kinds of wildlife with each other and with their living and nonliving environment.
Ecologist: This kind of scientist studies the relationship of living things with each other and with the nonliving environment.

Thinking About Science

Sometimes scientists study current problems. Scientists also study problems that may occur in the future. To study what may happen in the future, scientists look at current evidence and make predictions about what might happen.

In this study, the scientists were interested in how a changing climate may affect wildlife in the future. Scientists have tried to figure out the effects of climate change using several different methods. The method the scientists used in this study was to create a vulnerability index. A vulnerability index predicts how much a species might be affected by changes to their habitat. The scientists used this vulnerability index to predict which species of wildlife were likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This process enables people who work to conserve wildlife to make better decisions.

Thinking About the Environment

Have you heard the term “climate change?” Climate change refers to how Earth’s climate may be changing over time. In the past few years, most scientists have agreed that measured and recorded changes in Earth’s climate over the past 100 or more years point to a warming of Earth’s surface.

Scientists are researching questions related to the possible effects of climate change. One question is: How do different plant and animal species respond to a changing climate? In this study, scientists were interested in how some vertebrates may respond to climate change (figure 1).

An illustration showing vertebrate and invertebrate species — **Figure 1**. What is the difference between an invertebrate and a vertebrate? Illustration by Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Introduction

Coronado NationalForest, a mountainous area with lots of cactus — **Figure 2**. The Coronado National Forest covers 1,780,000 acres of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Photo by Rod Replogle, Forest Service.

The CNF is located in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico (figure 3). The scientists identified 30 species to study.

A map of the U.S. with Arizona and New Mexico highlighted — **Figure 3**. The Coronado National Forest is located in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

The 30 species the scientists studied included reptiles, amphibians, birds, and mammals (figures 4, 5a, & 5b). Some of these 30 species were important to study because they were considered at risk of extinction. Some of the species were already listed as an Endangered Species or a Federal Species of Concern.

Figure 4. The 30 different species that the scientists studied included 8 birds, 13 mammals, 5 reptiles, and 4 amphibians.
Abert’s squirrel	Arizona ridge-nosed rattlesnake	Desert tortoise	Mexican long-tongued bat	Northern gray hawk	Townsend’s big-eared bat
Allen’s lappetbrowned bat	Chiricahua leopard frog	Elegant trogon	Montezuma quail	Northern Mexican gartnersnake	Western yellow bat
American bullfrog	Chiricahua fox squirrel	Giant spotted whiptail	Mount Graham red squirrel	Slevin’s bunchgrass lizard	Western yellow-billed cuckoo
American peregrine falcon	Coues’ whitetailed deer	Gould’s wild turkey	Northern buff-breasted flycatcher	Sonoran tiger salamander	Western red bat
Arizona gray squirrel	Desert bighorn sheep	Mesquite mouse	Northern goshawk	Tarahumara frog	White-bellied long-tailed vole

The scientists in this study were interested in discovering how climate change may affect the 30 species they studied. The scientists wanted to figure out how vulnerable the species may be to climate change.

The Chiricahua leopard frog — **Figure 5a**. The Chiricahua (chir ə kä wə) leopard frog is a threatened species. Under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, a threatened species means that the species is “likely to become endangered in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range.” An endangered species is one in which the entire species is in danger of extinction. When a species is extinct, no individuals of that species are alive. Photo courtesy of Jim Rorabaugh, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

**Figure 5b**. The American peregrine falcon is a fast flier. The falcon averages 25-34 miles per hour in traveling flight. The falcon can reach up to 69 miles per hour when pursuing prey. Photo courtesy of Andrew Kuhn, National Park Service.

Reflection Section

Methods

To figure out which species were likely to be the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the scientists used a vulnerability index. The scientists answered 25 questions for each species. The 25 questions were grouped into four categories.

The four categories were habitat, physiology (fi zē ä lə jē), phenology (fi nä lə jē), and biotic (bī ä tik) interactions. The habitat category covered topics about where an animal lives. The physiology category covered topics related to the function and activities of the animal.

Phenology is the study of the relationship between climate and events in the annual life cycle of plants and animals. Example topics in the phenology category are bird migration and plant flowering. Migration is when an animal moves from one region or climate to another for feeding or breeding.

Biotic interactions are the ways that living things interact with each other. The questions in this category related to how these interactions might change due to a changing climate. Examples of the types of questions the scientists answered are shown in figure 6.

A table showing examples of the types of questions the scientists answered — **Figure 6**. Examples of different types of questions the scientists asked in
each category.

The scientists answered these types of questions for each of the species in their study. Each question was scored a point value depending on the answer to the question. The scientists calculated an overall score for each species using points from answers to all 25 questions.

The scientists also calculated a score for each species in each of the four categories (using points from only the questions within the category).

In addition, the scientists calculated a score for the four different taxonomic groups they studied. They calculated this score by taking the average of the overall score for each species in a taxonomic group. The four taxonomic groups that were studied were birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles.

In summary, the scientists calculated three scores: 1) an overall score for each species; 2) a score for each category for each species; and 3) a taxonomic group score.

Reflection Section

Findings

The scientists found that most of the species were vulnerable to climate change. The overall score ranged from -0.4 to 9.9. The larger the overall score, the more vulnerable the species was to a changing climate.

Sixty-seven percent of the species identified had a score over 5. These were the species most vulnerable to climate change. The two species with the largest scores were the elegant trogon (trō gän) and the Tarahumara (ta rə hü mär ə) frog (figures 7 & 8). The lowest scoring species were the mesquite mouse, the desert bighorn sheep (see photo, upper right), and Slevin’s bunchgrass lizard. These three species were predicted to be the least vulnerable to climate change.

elegant trogon’s on a branch — **Figure 7**. The elegant trogon’s population is estimated to be around 200,000 birds. Photo courtesy of Dominic Sherony (Wikimedia Commons).

**Figure 8**. The Tarahumara frog does not have vocal sacs like most male frogs. Vocal sacs are a thin piece of skin that, when filled with air, enables a male frog to call loudly. The Tarahumara frog still manages to make sounds, such as grunts and snores, above and below the water. Photo courtesy of Jim Rorabaugh, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Scientists calculated scores for each species within the four categories. The scores ranged from -2.3 to 5 for habitat, physiology, and phenology. The closer the score was to 5, the more vulnerable the species was predicted to be in that category (figure 9).

Figure 9. The highest and lowest scoring species for habitat, physiology, and phenology. The closer the score was to 5, the more vulnerable the species was predicted to be in each category.
Category	Species	Score
Habitat (highest score)	Chiricahua leopard frog	4.0
Habitat (lowest score)	Slevin’s bunchgrass lizard	-2.3
Physiology (highest score)	Tarahumara frog and Chiricahua leopard frog	2.9 (for both)
Physiology (lowest score)	Townsend’s big-eared bat	-0.8
Phenology (highest score)	Elegant trogon	5.0
Phenology (lowest score)	Mesquite mouse	-3.3

When the scientists looked at the different taxonomic groups they studied, they found that the bird group had the highest average overall score and the reptile group had the lowest average overall score (figure 10).

Figure 10. The scores for the taxonomic groups showed that all of the groups were vulnerable to climate change.
Taxonomic Group	Average Overall Score
Birds	7.4
Amphibians	6.9
Mammals	5.0
Reptiles	3.9

Reflection Section

Discussion

The scientists concluded that most of the 30 species are vulnerable to a changing climate. The scientists suggested that the scores for each species may be used as a guide. These scores may help guide which species should be studied more right now. Also, the scientists believe it is important to look at the individual characteristics of each species. These individual characteristics may have an impact on the vulnerability of a species.

The scientists also said it was important to consider the overall score as well as the scores within the categories (habitat, phenology, physiology, and biotic interactions). For example, the elegant trogon and Tarahumara frog had the same overall score. However, they had different scores within the four categories. The scores within the categories may help scientists know which areas need more study.

Reflection Section

why the to

Do you think it is useful to figure out how vulnerable a species is to climate change? Why or why not?

Take a moment to think about all the members of your class. Write down three words to describe your entire class. For example, you could say energetic, smart, and fun-loving. Now take a moment to think about yourself. Write down three words to describe you. Did the three words that you wrote about the entire class and the three words you wrote about yourself match perfectly? How is this like what the scientists found out about the different species when they used the overall score, the category score, and the taxonomic group scores?

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Adapted from Coe, Sharon J.; Finch, Deborah M.; Friggens, Megan M. 2012. An assessment of climate change and the vulnerability of wildlife in the Sky Islands of the Southwest. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-273. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 208 p. http:// www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr273.pdf.

Part Of

Animals and Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States Investi-gator (Rocky Mountain Research Station) - Vol. 3 No. 1

Explore Full Journal

What Is an Investi-gator Journal?

A fan of the three Investi-gator covers

An Investi-gator journal is a collection of 4-6 articles on a variety of science topics from a particular region of the United States. These journals are written for upper elementary school students. Investi-gators are similar to our Natural Inquirer journals, but the articles and activities are written for younger students.

Investi-gator journals include:

Four to six articles based on published, peer-reviewed research papers; the articles keep the research paper format (see more below) but are written in language students can understand.
A FACTivity for each article, which is an activity to complete after reading the article. The FACTivity helps reinforce major science concepts from the article. These activities are designed to be easy to implement, with few material requirements and options for adapting them for your audience or available resources. Some articles in a journal may have two FACTivities.
A short “Welcome to the journal” article about key background information and science concepts that unify the articles included in the journal
A glossary of new terms for each article and the introductory materials.
A list of related Natural Inquirer publications for each article as well as outside references.
Standards correlations, including Next Generation Science Standards, addressed in the articles and the FACTivities.

Journals may also include additional essays (called spotlights), other activities (like crossword puzzles or vocabulary challenges), and more.

A screenshot of one of the Investi-gator article's listing showing the different modes of viewing

Reading Modes

Investi-gator journals are currently available in two formats:

PDF versions of the printed journal can be downloaded free on the website. The PDF version directly replicates the content and layout of the printed version. You can also download individual articles as pdfs.
The “Read Distraction Free” option allows the individual articles to open in their own window, without the rest of the website being visible. These articles can be found under the “Articles” tab. This version allows readers to scroll to particular sections of the article using the sidebar menu on the left side of the screen. This version also has interactive Reflection Sections and Number Crunches. Students can enter their answers, submit them, and then receive the correct answers to double-check their work. Submitted answers are not saved on the website and will disappear once the window is closed.

What's in an Invest-gator Article?

Here, we'll go into more detail about the parts of an Investi-gator article and give you some ideas about how they can be used.

Meet the Scientists
This section introduces the scientists (and others) who worked on the study. In their own words, they each share a memorable science experience, a favorite research project, or something they learned during the course of their education or research.

Use this section to:
- Introduce kids to the variety of people who work in science
- Introduce kids to the variety of scientific fields and give brief descriptions of science-related jobs
- Explore ways that people interact with science every day
Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Crosscutting Concepts: Influence of Science, Engineering, and Technology on Society and the Natural World
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many of the scientists and engineers featured in this section are also featured on our collector cards. Learn more about their work, how they got interested in their fields, and interesting projects they worked on. Cards can be printed as posters, too.
Thinking About Science
This section briefly describes a concept about science or scientific research. This overview can touch on topics like
- study type (longitudinal study, quantitative vs. qualitative data),
- behaviors of scientists (conducting literature reviews, collaborating with other specialists, replicating earlier studies),
- the practice of science (the scientific method, engineering design, data collection, randomization, controls and variables),
- or other aspects of science (bias, correlation vs. causation).
Use this section to:
- Reinforce steps in the scientific method and the process of science
- Encourage students to think about the practice of science and what it can and cannot tell us
- Consider the many types of scientific study and what information each type can provide
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Life Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for other or related scientific topics on our website (e.g. “longitudinal study,” “bias,” or “sampling”).
Thinking About the Environment
This section provides a brief overview of a topic or concept in environmental/life science. The topic or concept is directly related to the research study that follows. Examples of topics include the carbon cycle, the water cycle, habitat fragmentation, phenology, biodiversity, and ecosystem services.

Use this section to:
- Provide important background information to help students understand the research study
- Serve as a quick reference during reading or class instruction
- Connect the research article with other activities or media on the same topic
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for more resources on life or earth science topics on our website (e.g. “habitat,” “carbon,” or “genetics”).
Introduction
This section begins the scientific article format. Much like the published, peer-reviewed study this article is based on, the introduction provides background information for the study – what is currently known and what remains unknown. The introduction culminates in the question(s) the study hopes to answer.

The introduction is also the first section with a Reflection Section. This section includes two or three questions to help kids reflect on what they’ve just learned in the Introduction. If they are using the online distraction-free reading mode, they can answer these questions directly on the website.

Use this section to:
- Review important background information that kids need to understand the study
- Connect the study to the concepts addressed in the Thinking About Science and Thinking About the Environment sections
- Understand research questions and hypotheses, including generating their own hypotheses given what they already know
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use one of the guided reading lesson plans to help kids follow the format of a scientific paper.
Methods
This section is the nuts and bolts of the study design – the who, what, when, where, why, and how of the research. Contained within the Methods section are usually maps of the study location or the set-up of study plots, as well as details about what data was collected and how.

The Methods section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Show students how experiments and studies are designed and carried out
- Explore sampling methods and randomization
- Introduce various data collection tools (e.g. camera traps, surveys, insect collection tools, weather stations, etc.)
- Explain bias and how studies are designed to remove bias
- Help students gain experience with map reading
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many Methods and Findings sections contain Number Crunches, which are simple math exercises designed to help students interact with the data from the study.
Findings
This section summarizes the data collected during the study. The Findings section usually includes data tables or graphs and highlights the significant data points from the study. This section often mentions statistical analysis or the use of computer programs to model or analyze the data, though these methods are only discussed generally.

The Findings section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Have students practice reading and interpreting graphs and tables
- Compare results between variables and controls
- Explain the concept of statistical significance
- Discuss how no data or negative results still provide valuable information
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Search the website for “map” or “graph” to find activities where students can practice making and reading maps and graphs.
Discussion
This section concludes each article. In it, we summarize the main findings of the scientists’ study. Additionally, we present the scientists’ ideas about the limitations of their study, the big-picture impacts of their research, and the scientists’ plans for future study or action.

The Discussion section ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read, especially general take-aways from the study. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Discuss what conclusions can and cannot be drawn from the available data
- Explain the difference between correlation and causation
- Explore study limitations and opportunities for further study
- Brainstorm ways the study findings could be applied to real-world situations
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use the “Designing Your Own Study” resource page for videos of scientists discussing their own research studies. The page also includes educator resources to help students plan their own scientific studies.

Additional Resources on the Website

A screenshot of the related content tab for an Investi-gator article On the website, we pair each journal with a variety of other resources, as well. Use the tabs on the product page to browse through the following:

Related activities, including the FACTivity for each article
An “About” essay that gives some larger context for the research the scientists conducted or more information about the science topic from the journal
A glossary of all boldfaced terms from the journal
A “Scientists and Collaborators” page that lists the people involved in the studies in the journal; click on a researcher to reach their bio page and see what other articles they might be featured in
A “Related Content” page that lists both Natural Inquirer resources about similar topics and also outside reference materials

Article Selection and Review

Natural Inquirer partners with the USDA Forest Service, so we source research studies by Forest Service scientists that have been peer-reviewed and published in reputable journals. Some of our articles have also been created in collaboration with scientists from other Federal agencies, such as U.S. Geological Survey and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, universities, and other non-profits.

All journal articles are reviewed by scientists who conducted the original research study to verify scientific accuracy. Journals are also reviewed by student editorial review boards of middle or high school students before publication. Additionally, all journals are reviewed by the Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture before publication.

A screenshot of the citation for Every journal article includes a citation of its source study. Many educators pair the original research paper with our article to help more advanced students learn how to read formal research papers. The journal article then serves as adapted primary literature, bridging the two articles.

Education Files

Project Learning Tree

If you are a trained Project Learning Tree educator, you may use Activity #86 “Our Changing World” or Activity #88 “Life on the Edge” as additional resources.

Glossary

View All Glossary

average
(av (ǝ) rij): A value that is computed by dividing the sum of a set of terms by the number of terms.
cay
(kē): A low island or reef of sand or coral.
conserve
(kǝn sǝrv): To avoid wasteful or destructive use of something.
endangered species
(in dān jǝrd spē sēz): A plant or animals with so few individual survivors that the species could become extinct in the area where it naturally lives.
extinction
(ik stiŋk shən): The state of no longer existing.
Federal Species of Concern
(fe d(ə-)rəl spē sēz əv kən sərn): Species which might need special help. Species of concern do not receive legal protection.
habitat
(ha bә tat): The place or environment where a plant or animal naturally or normally lives and grows.
reef
(rēf): A chain of rocks or coral or a ridge of sand at or near the surface of the water.
specialized
(spe shə līzd): Designed, trained, or fitted for one particular purpose or occupation.
species
(spē sēz or spē shēz): A category of living things that ranks below a genus, is made up of related individuals able to produce fertile offspring, and is identified by a two-part scientific name.
taxonomic
(tak sə nä mik): Having to do with the orderly classification of living things according to their presumed natural relationships.
vertebrate
(vərt ə brət or vərt ə brāt): Any of a large group of animals (such as mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fishes) that typically have a bony or cartilaginous backbone which replaces the notochord, a distinct head containing a brain which arises as an enlarged part of the nerve cord, and an internal usually bony skeleton and including some primitive forms (such as lampreys) in which the backbone is absent and the notochord persists throughout life.
vulnerability
(vəl n(ə-) rə bi lə tē): The state of being vulnerable.
vulnerability index
(vəl n(ə-) rə bi lə tē in deks): A system for generating a number that indicates how vulnerable something is to something harmful. In this study (“Wild Ways”), scientists collected data about each species and then answered questions about how each species could be affected by climate change. The scientists then were able to calculate numbers, called scores. Higher scores indicated higher predicted vulnerability.
vulnerable
(vəl n(ə-)rə bəl): Open to attack or damage.

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FACTivity – Wild Ways

Standards addressed in this Article:

What Is an Investi-gator Journal?

Reading Modes

What's in an Invest-gator Article?

Meet the Scientists

Thinking About Science

Thinking About the Environment

Introduction

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Additional Resources on the Website

Article Selection and Review

Education Files

Project Learning Tree

Glossary

average

cay

conserve

endangered species

extinction

Federal Species of Concern

habitat

reef

specialized

species

taxonomic

vertebrate

vulnerability

vulnerability index

vulnerable

Sharon Coe

Deborah Finch

Megan Friggens