When scientists begin their research, they read as much as possible of what has already been written on the topic. This process is important because it allows the scientists to make sure they are up-to-date on all the newest research. In some cases, the topic the scientists are interested in has so much information that reading, understanding, and tying all the information together becomes a research project in itself. In this study, scientists read and compiled information and research on climate and rural areas. The scientists wanted to examine how climate change may affect rural areas and the people that live there.

Every living thing has basic things it needs to survive. Animals need air, water, food, and shelter. Plants need air, water, nutrients, and light. To do well and prosper, however, living things need a good habitat in which to live. A good habitat means that there is food and water available and that the climate is suitable for the living thing. As the climate changes, some living things may move to different habitats if they can. In this study, the scientists examined a particular group of living things and what might happen if their environment changes. The scientists looked at how rural areas in the United States and people living in rural areas may be affected by climate change.

The United States is made up of both rural and urban areas. Rural areas are areas with fewer people and more land (fig. 1).

Urban areas are areas with a high population density (figs.2a and 2b).

For this research, the scientists identified 2,050 counties in the United States that were rural and 1,090 counties that were urban (fig. 3). Rural areas make up about 17 percent of the population in the United States but cover 80 percent of the land area.

Rural counties tend to be poorer than urban counties. Rural counties also have higher unemployment, lower educational attainment, fewer highly skilled jobs, and greater dependency on government funds. Because of the socioeconomic challenges rural areas face, these areas may be vulnerable to climate change in some ways while not as vulnerable in other ways. When something is vulnerable, it is open to attack or damage. For example, rural areas are expected to experience more negative impacts from the change in agriculture due to climate change than urban areas experience. However, rural areas may not experience as many extreme heat events as urban areas. The scientists in this study were interested in studying how climate change may impact rural areas in the United States.

The scientists collected journal articles, government reports, and other publications about climate change. The scientists read all of the information and organized it into three areas. The three areas were human health, indigenous communities, and economic impacts. Much of the literature did not specifically address social and economic effects of climate change, so the scientists made inferences about these effects.

The inferences were based on general climate models (GCMs). GCMs are computer models that allow people to create long-term weather forecasts and predict future changes in climate. These models use mathematical equations to simulate the interactions of things like water, atmosphere, land surfaces, and ice. These equations are then run through computers and interpreted by scientists.

The scientists made a variety of inferences and determinations based on the climate change literature they read. Below you will read about some of the inferences they made about rural areas in each of the following areas: impacts on human health, impacts on indigenous populations, and economic impacts.

Impacts on Human Health

The scientists looked at direct and indirect impacts when they studied human health impacts in rural areas. The scientists found that direct impacts resulted from increased exposure to temperature and extreme weather. The scientists found that rural areas may be less vulnerable to extreme heat events than cities due to the heat island effect. Additionally, rural areas typically have more vegetation. The increased vegetation provides more shade and cooling from evaporation (figs. 4a and 4b).

The scientists also found that indirect impacts from disease and infection could potentially have a negative impact on rural communities. Heavy downpours, for example, could lead to an increase in sediment runoff into waterways. This increase in sediment in the waterways could lead to an increase in waterborne diseases.

Impacts on Indigenous Communities

Many indigenous communities are located in rural areas. The scientists found that communities such as Native American communities and Native Alaskan communities may experience negative impacts from climate change. For example, it is estimated that climate change may increase flooding and erosion by 86 percent in Native Alaskan communities (fig. 6).

Native American communities and other indigenous communities are not as flexible in terms of moving to different areas. In the case of Native Americans, some of these people live on land that is specially protected for them (fig. 7). Therefore, if the climate changes and creates problems in the area that they live, they may not be as likely to change location as some other people. Additionally, access to traditional food sources and ways of collecting and sharing food may be impacted.

Economic Impacts

The scientists examined six different areas in the category of economic impacts. The scientists examined agriculture, recreation and tourism, forestry, water, fisheries, and energy. Below are examples from the two areas of agriculture and forestry.

Agriculture takes place largely in rural areas because of the amount of land required for agricultural activities. The impact of climate change on agricultural activities, therefore, directly affects rural areas. Some crop plants, for example, may not be able to grow in areas that they traditionally grew in due to increases in the average temperature. The change in crop location may benefit where crops are able to grow and may benefit some rural areas while it may devastate other rural areas. Additionally, a warming climate may cause crops to develop and bloom too early which may expose these plants to late season frosts. Another example can be found in the dairy industry. The dairy industry can be affected by climate change because dairy cows’ productivity decreases when the temperature goes above 77 ºF.

Another area of possible economic impact for rural areas is forestry. Depending on how the temperature changes due to climate change, scientists have made projections about what types of trees will grow in different areas (fig. 8).

If forests in the South and Northeast shift to oak and hickory trees instead of softwoods like pine trees, then the wood and pulp industry may experience large losses. These losses would impact rural communities because many people in these rural areas make their living from working in the wood and pulp industry.

The potential impacts of climate change on rural areas include increased risks to human health, changes to agriculture and forestry, and increased demand on water resources. Other potential impacts include those from increased stress on fisheries, changes to tourism and recreation, negative effects on indigenous communities, and other adverse impacts related to extreme weather events.

The scientists recommend doing additional research that focuses on rural areas’ ability to adapt to climate change. Researchers need to look at the costs of adapting to climate change. They also should explore what problems may arise when rural communities adapt to this change, and the consequences of climate change for rural communities. This type of research would allow rural communities to prepare for a changing climate and may help reduce negative impacts from climate change.

The scientists also recommend examining alternative energy sources as a way to help rural areas. Solar energy and wind energy, for example, may help reduce the negative impacts of climate change on rural areas. The scientists warn, however, that the focus on alternative energy should take into account the predictions for climate change.

The scientists recommend that some policies should be developed to help rural areas adapt to a changing climate. With these policies in place, rural areas will be better prepared for the potential impacts of climate change and may be able to more quickly adapt and respond to changes.