Please login to bookmark

Where in the World Is Carbon Dioxide? The Potential Impact of Rising Levels of Carbon Dioxide on U.S. Forests

Most scientists think that evidence from different studies shows that our global climate is changing in many ways, such as getting warmer, more rain falling in shorter amounts of time, and more drought. The scientists in this study used mathematical formulas to study what kind of impact these changes in the Earth’s climate might have on vegetation.

Note: In earlier Natural Inquirer articles like this one, the Discussion section is called "Implications."

Where in the World Is Carbon Dioxide? The Potential Impact of Rising Levels of Carbon Dioxide on U.S. Forests

Meet the Scientists

Linda Joyce

Quantitative Ecologist

Richard Birdsey

Thinking About Science

Do you think that the climate of the Earth is changing? When scientists first reported that they had scientific evidence to show that the Earth’s climate is changing, many scientists were skeptical. This is a normal reaction of scientists to new discoveries. Scientists check the accuracy of new scientific discoveries by questioning each other.

One way they question each other is to do more research that may or may not support the other scientist’s findings. Science is a process of learning. When something new is discovered, it can take many years before the discovery is widely accepted as being true or false.

Thinking About the Environment

Can you guess what forests have to do with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? Plants use photosynthesis to take carbon dioxide from the air and turn it into complex carbohydrates, which are part of the chemical makeup of plants. When a plant dies, the carbon in the plant goes into the soil or returns as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. When large areas of forests burn, the carbon in the leaves, branches, and roots is released as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. For green plants to take up carbon through photosynthesis and release carbon back into the atmosphere are normal processes.

When plants are growing and photosynthesis is greatest, the plants are absorbing the greatest amount of carbon dioxide from the air. The plants store the carbon dioxide in their leaves and wood, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This reduction can be seen in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
measured over Hawaii from 1959 to 1998 (figure 1).

Graph showing hawaii and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — **Figure 1**. Amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over Hawaii.

The burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, and the clearing of forests around the Earth has increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. You can see the rising amount of carbon dioxide in the figure. The levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are now higher than they have been for at least 400,000 years.

Introduction

Most scientists think that evidence from different studies shows that our global climate is changing in many ways, such as getting warmer, more rain falling in shorter amounts of time, and more drought. These scientists have studied the past climate by analyzing weather observations that have been collected over a long period of time.

Other scientists are studying the possible ways that climate could continue to change over the next 100 years by using mathematical formulas that run on computers. The scientists in this study used mathematical formulas to study what kind of impact these changes in the Earth’s climate might have on vegetation.

Reflection Section

Method

The scientists focused on 10 types of vegetation in the United States (table 1 and figure 2).

Type of Vegetation	Description	Location in the United States
A. Tundra	Permanently frozen soils with shrubs, mosses, grasses, and lichens.	Above the Arctic Circle in northern Alaska
B. Taiga-Tundra	Cold or frozen soils. Contains mosses, grasses, lichens, dwarf shrubs, and short, herb-like plants.	Near the Arctic Circle in northern Alaska, and also in the highest mountain areas of the Western United States
C. Boreal (coniferous forest)	Contains few tree species, such as spruce, fir, cedar, hemlock, and pine that can live in intense winter cold and drought. Contains a few broadleaf species, such as aspen and birch.	Just south of the arctic taiga-tundra in northern Alaska, and in the mountain areas of the Western United States
D. Temperate (evergreen forest)	Contains large coniferous trees such as Sitka spruce, Douglas fir, and redwoods.	Along the northwest U.S. coast from Canada to northern California
E. Temperate mixed forest	Contains some broadleaf deciduoustrees, such as oak, hickory, maple, poplar, beech, and sycamore; and some coniferous evergreen species.	Throughout the Eastern United States to the area of the great plains
F. Tropical broadleaf forest	Broadleaf forest that grows where it is hot and there is a lot of rainfall. Contains some deciduous trees and some evergreens.	Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Hawaii
G. Savanna woodland	Contains scattered shrubs and small trees.	Central United States
H. Shrub woodland	Contains dense cover of evergreen shrubs. May also contain a few trees that can live with little water, such as pines and scrub oak.	Mostly flat areas of the mountainous Western United States and the Southwest
I. Grasslands	Tall-grass, mixed-grass, and short-grass prairies that contain mostly grasses.	Central United States plains, Southwest United States, and flat areas of the mountainous Western United States
J. Arid lands	Desert lands, with warm to cool temperatures and low amounts of rainfall. Vegetation includes cacti and other plants that require little rainfall.	Southwestern United States and southern California

A mountain area with a grassy field — **Figure (2a)**. Tundra vegetation. National Park Service photo.

Grassy valley with mountains in the back — **Figure (2b)**. Taiga-Tundra vegetation. National Park Service photo.

Coniferous tree with mountains in the background — **Figure (2c)**. Boreal coniferous forest. Forest Service photo.

Redwood trees — **Figure (2d)**. Temperate evergreen forest. Forest Service photo.

Different types of trees in a forest — **Figure (2e)**. Temperate mixed forest. Adobe Stock photo.

A forested area with many trees and other plants on the forest floor — **Figure (2f)**. Tropical broadleaf forest. iStock photo.

Scattered small trees — **Figure (2g)**. Savanna woodland vegetation. National Park Service photo.

A mountain with small shrubs on it — **Figure (2h)**. Shrub woodland vegetation. Forest Service photo.

Grasslands with tall grasses and flowers — **Figure (2i)**. Grasslands vegetation. Forest Service photo.

Cactus and other arid plants — **Figure (2j)**. Arid land vegetation. Forest Service photo.

Information that described the environmental conditions needed by each type of vegetation were entered into a computer program. An example is the number of inches of rainfall needed over 1 year. Other environmental conditions included hot and cold temperature limits. Then, numbers representing higher temperatures and changes in rainfall and snowfall were put into the formulas in place of the current amounts.

The results from these new environmental conditions described how possible climate change might cause vegetation to change across the United States. For example, in one formula the average temperature for the United States was increased by 4 °C by the year 2100. The mathematical formulas predicted what kind of vegetation would grow in each area of the United States, if everything was the same as it is now except for the temperature and the amount of rainfall and snowfall.

Reflection Section

Findings

The mathematical formulas predicted that boreal forests and taiga-tundra vegetation will move northward and upward in elevation, and the southern areas of current boreal forests will die. For example, the boreal forest that now grows in Minnesota was predicted to disappear if the climate gets warmer. Forests in the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast will initially expand in size, then get smaller. This is because the increased amount of carbon dioxide will at first enable the trees to absorb more carbon dioxide and carry out more photosynthesis.

If the temperature rises and the pattern of rain and snow fall changes, some trees would die from too little water. The large temperate mixed forest would break up into many smaller areas because of a lack of water in some areas. Many of the trees would die, leaving vegetation of a few trees and many grasses. In the Southwest, rainfall was predicted to increase. If that happens, the amount of arid land would shrink, and the area of grasslands would increase (figure 3).

Maps of the U.S. with current location of the vegetation types across 48 states and the different possible future climates.

Reflection Section

Implications

Although the mathematical formulas predicted changes in United States vegetation, the scientists said that the results must be considered with caution. First, these climate futures are possible futures and the actual future climate may be different. It may not be as warm or it may have more rainfall than predicted. Second, the predicted amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may not be correct. Third, other effects, such as the pattern of rainfall and snowfall, may not happen the way the formulas predicted. Many other things might happen that the computer model could not predict.

The scientists suggest that there are things we can do today to lower the amount of carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. For example, we could turn some of our poorer crop land and pasture land into forests. Forests absorb a lot more carbon dioxide than crop or pasture land. We could minimize the amount of forests that we are cutting down for other uses, such as for agriculture or for building homes and businesses. We can continually improve the way we take care of the forests that we have. We can recycle more paper and wood products, and we can plant more trees in urban and suburban areas.

Reflection Section

From: Joyce, Linda A.; Birdsey, Richard, technical editors. 2000. The impact of climate change on America’s forests: A technical document supporting the 2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-59. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 133 pp

Part Of

Facts to the Future - Vol. 5 No. 1

Explore Full Journal

ESS2.C-M1
ESS3.A-M1
ESS3.C-M1
ESS3.C-M2
ESS3.D-M1
LS1.B-M4
LS1.C-M1
LS2.A-M1
LS2.A-M2
LS2.A-M3
LS2.C-M1
LS4.D-M1
PS3.D-M1
PS3.D-M2

What Is a Natural Inquirer Journal?

Three Natural Inquirer journal covers with NI bee

A Natural Inquirer journal is a collection of 4-8 articles on a related science topic. Journals are written for a middle school audience, but they can also be adapted for both high school students and advanced upper elementary students. Some journals are particularly suited to high school students; you can find our grade level recommendations in the tags on the product page or by filtering journals by grade level.

Journals include:

Four to eight articles based on published, peer-reviewed research papers; the articles keep the research paper format (see more below) but are written in language students can understand.
A FACTivity for each article, which is an activity to complete after reading the article. The FACTivity helps reinforce major science concepts from the article. These activities are designed to be easy to implement, with few material requirements and options for adapting them for your audience or available resources. Some articles in a journal may have two FACTivities.
A short “Welcome to the journal” article about key background information and science concepts that unify the articles included in the journal
A glossary of new terms for each article and the introductory materials.
A list of related Natural Inquirer publications for each article as well as outside references.
Standards correlations, including Next Generation Science Standards, addressed in the articles and the FACTivities.

Journals may also include additional essays (called spotlights), other activities (like crossword puzzles or vocabulary challenges), and more.

A screenshot of the article resource tile for "A Flame Changer" showing the three different format option buttons.

Reading Modes

Journals are available in three different formats:

Hard copies can be ordered from the website and shipped, all free of charge.
PDF versions of the printed journal can be downloaded free on the website. The PDF version directly replicates the content and layout of the printed version. You can also download individual articles as pdfs.
The “Read Distraction Free” option allows the individual articles to open in their own window, without the rest of the website being visible. These articles can be found under the “Articles” tab. This version allows readers to scroll to particular sections of the article using the sidebar menu on the left side of the screen. This version also has interactive Reflection Sections and Number Crunches. Students can enter their answers, submit them, and then receive the correct answers to double-check their work. Submitted answers are not saved on the website and will disappear once the window is closed.

What's in a Natural Inquirer Article?

Here, we'll go into more detail about the parts of a Natural Inquirer article and give you some ideas about how they can be used.

Meet the Scientists
This section introduces the scientists (and others) who worked on the study. In their own words, they each share a memorable science experience, a favorite research project, or something they learned during the course of their education or research.

Use this section to:
- Introduce kids to the variety of people who work in science
- Introduce kids to the variety of scientific fields and give brief descriptions of science-related jobs
- Explore ways that people interact with science every day
Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Crosscutting Concepts: Influence of Science, Engineering, and Technology on Society and the Natural World
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many of the scientists and engineers featured in this section are also featured on our collector cards. Learn more about their work, how they got interested in their fields, and interesting projects they worked on. Cards can be printed as posters, too.
Thinking About Science
This section briefly describes a concept about science or scientific research. This overview can touch on topics like
- study type (longitudinal study, quantitative vs. qualitative data),
- behaviors of scientists (conducting literature reviews, collaborating with other specialists, replicating earlier studies),
- the practice of science (the scientific method, engineering design, data collection, randomization, controls and variables),
- or other aspects of science (bias, correlation vs. causation).
Use this section to:
- Reinforce steps in the scientific method and the process of science
- Encourage students to think about the practice of science and what it can and cannot tell us
- Consider the many types of scientific study and what information each type can provide
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Life Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for other or related scientific topics on our website (e.g. “longitudinal study,” “bias,” or “sampling”).
Thinking About the Environment
This section provides a brief overview of a topic or concept in environmental/life science. The topic or concept is directly related to the research study that follows. Examples of topics include the carbon cycle, the water cycle, habitat fragmentation, phenology, biodiversity, and ecosystem services.

Use this section to:
- Provide important background information to help students understand the research study
- Serve as a quick reference during reading or class instruction
- Connect the research article with other activities or media on the same topic
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for more resources on life or earth science topics on our website (e.g. “habitat,” “carbon,” or “genetics”).
Introduction
This section begins the scientific article format. Much like the published, peer-reviewed study this article is based on, the introduction provides background information for the study – what is currently known and what remains unknown. The introduction culminates in the question(s) the study hopes to answer.

The introduction is also the first section with a Reflection Section. This section includes two or three questions to help kids reflect on what they’ve just learned in the Introduction. If they are using the online distraction-free reading mode, they can answer these questions directly on the website.

Use this section to:
- Review important background information that kids need to understand the study
- Connect the study to the concepts addressed in the Thinking About Science and Thinking About the Environment sections
- Understand research questions and hypotheses, including generating their own hypotheses given what they already know
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use one of the guided reading lesson plans to help kids follow the format of a scientific paper.
Methods
This section is the nuts and bolts of the study design – the who, what, when, where, why, and how of the research. Contained within the Methods section are usually maps of the study location or the set-up of study plots, as well as details about what data was collected and how.

The Methods section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Show students how experiments and studies are designed and carried out
- Explore sampling methods and randomization
- Introduce various data collection tools (e.g. camera traps, surveys, insect collection tools, weather stations, etc.)
- Explain bias and how studies are designed to remove bias
- Help students gain experience with map reading
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many Methods and Findings sections contain Number Crunches, which are simple math exercises designed to help students interact with the data from the study.
Findings
This section summarizes the data collected during the study. The Findings section usually includes data tables or graphs and highlights the significant data points from the study. This section often mentions statistical analysis or the use of computer programs to model or analyze the data, though these methods are only discussed generally.

The Findings section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Have students practice reading and interpreting graphs and tables
- Compare results between variables and controls
- Explain the concept of statistical significance
- Discuss how no data or negative results still provide valuable information
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Search the website for “map” or “graph” to find activities where students can practice making and reading maps and graphs.
Discussion
This section concludes each article. In it, we summarize the main findings of the scientists’ study. Additionally, we present the scientists’ ideas about the limitations of their study, the big-picture impacts of their research, and the scientists’ plans for future study or action.

The Discussion section ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read, especially general take-aways from the study. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Discuss what conclusions can and cannot be drawn from the available data
- Explain the difference between correlation and causation
- Explore study limitations and opportunities for further study
- Brainstorm ways the study findings could be applied to real-world situations
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular journal are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use the “Designing Your Own Study” resource page for videos of scientists discussing their own research studies. The page also includes educator resources to help students plan their own scientific studies.

Additional Resources on the Website

A screenshot of the product tabs for an NI monograph On the website, we pair each journal with a variety of other resources, as well. Use the tabs on the product page to browse through the following:

Related activities, including the FACTivity for each article
An “About” essay that gives some larger context for the research the scientists conducted or more information about the science topic from the journal
A glossary of all boldfaced terms from the journal
A “Scientists and Collaborators” page that lists the people involved in the studies in the journal; click on a researcher to reach their bio page and see what other articles they might be featured in
A “Related Content” page that lists both Natural Inquirer resources about similar topics and also outside reference materials

Article Selection and Review

Natural Inquirer partners with the USDA Forest Service, so we source research studies by Forest Service scientists that have been peer-reviewed and published in reputable journals. Some of our articles have also been created in collaboration with scientists from other Federal agencies, such as U.S. Geological Survey and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, universities, and other non-profits.

All journal articles are reviewed by scientists who conducted the original research study to verify scientific accuracy. Journals are also reviewed by student editorial review boards of middle or high school students before publication. Additionally, all journals are reviewed by the Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture before publication.

A screenshot of the citation for "Lights, Camera, Tracks" Every journal article includes a citation of its source study. Many educators pair the original research paper with our article to help more advanced students learn how to read formal research papers. The journal article then serves as adapted primary literature, bridging the two articles.

Lessons

In this lesson plan, students will assess the biological diversity of trees on their school grounds or another designated area. Students will be able to: observe identify, measure, transform, and...
Lesson Plan – Urban Forests
In this lesson plan, students will assess the biological diversity of trees on their school grounds or another designated area. Students will be able to: observe identify, measure, transform, and...
- Explore Lesson Plan
- Download Lesson Plan (PDF)
- Explore Lesson Plan
- Download Lesson Plan (PDF)
Part Of

Urban Forest - Vol. 6 No. 1
The purpose of this lesson plan is to give students a chance to reflect on their reading and create poems to express what they have learned. The lesson plan is...
Lesson Plan – Forest Poems
The purpose of this lesson plan is to give students a chance to reflect on their reading and create poems to express what they have learned. The lesson plan is...
- Explore Lesson Plan
- Download Lesson Plan (PDF)
- Explore Lesson Plan
- Download Lesson Plan (PDF)
Part Of

Wildland Fire 2 - Vol. 13 No. 1
Give each student or group a copy of the THIEVES chart reproduced at the end of the lesson plan PDF. You may either write the questions on the board, or...
Lesson Plan – THIEVES Chart Guided Reading
Give each student or group a copy of the THIEVES chart reproduced at the end of the lesson plan PDF. You may either write the questions on the board, or...
- Explore Lesson Plan
- Download Lesson Plan (PDF)
- Explore Lesson Plan
- Download Lesson Plan (PDF)
Part Of

Natural Inquirer - Vol. 14 No. 1

Download all resources - FREE!

Journals & Monographs

Collector Cards

Readers

Coloring and Activity Books

Please login to bookmark

FACTivity – Where in the World is Carbon Dioxide?

Word Search – Where in the World Is Carbon Dioxide?

Standards addressed in this Article:

What Is a Natural Inquirer Journal?

Reading Modes

What's in a Natural Inquirer Article?

Meet the Scientists

Thinking About Science

Thinking About the Environment

Introduction

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Additional Resources on the Website

Article Selection and Review

Lessons

Lesson Plan – Urban Forests

Lesson Plan – Forest Poems

Lesson Plan – THIEVES Chart Guided Reading

Education Files

Glossary

analyze

average

broadleaf

carbohydrate

climate

coniferous

deciduous

ecosystem

elevation

photosynthesis

skeptical

species

vegetation

weather

Richard Birdsey

Linda Joyce