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A Burning Question: Is An Ounce of Prevention Worth a Pound of Cure?

Today, Smokey continues to teach people of all ages about the importance of preventing wildfires. Just how effective is Smokey's message? The scientists in this study were interested in learning whether wildfire prevention education programs were effective at reducing the number of accidentally-caused wildfires on Tribal lands. They also wanted to assess whether the cost of suppressing wildfires was greater or less than the cost of wildfire prevention programs.

A Burning Question: Is An Ounce of Prevention Worth a Pound of Cure?

Meet the Scientists

Karen Abt

Forest Economist

David Butry

Economist/Resource Economist

Jeff Prestemon

Forest Economist

Samuel Scranton

Forester

What Kinds of Scientists Did This Research?

Economist: This scientist studies economics. Economics is a social science that addresses the production, distribution, and use of goods and services. Goods include purchased items like clothes or food. Services include things like car repair or tax preparation. Goods and services also include those that are difficult, if not impossible, to buy and sell, such as clean water, clean air, and pollination.

Forester: A scientist who studies forests or is skilled in planting, managing, or caring for trees. Foresters also manage forests for wildland fire.

Forest Economist: A scientist who studies the economics of forest lands. Economics is the study of the way goods, services, and wealth are measured, produced, distributed, and used.

Thinking About Science

To do experiments, scientists rely on assumptions. An assumption is a statement we assume to be true. In our everyday lives, we all make assumptions. For example, you probably assume that you will have clean water to drink every day. Name at least one more assumption that you make every day.

Assumptions help scientists to identify hypotheses. Hypotheses are assumptions put to a scientific test. In other words, a hypothesis is an assumption stated in such a way that scientists may determine whether evidence exists to support their assumption.

In this research, the scientists wanted to learn whether wildfire prevention activities were related to the number of wildfires occurring in particular communities. One set of activities the scientists studied was wildfire prevention education programs. In this research, the scientists assumed, and then hypothesized, that wildfire prevention education programs were related to the number of wildfires occurring in a community.

The scientists also hypothesized that community characteristics were related to the number of wildfires. All these hypotheses were based on assumptions made by the scientists. In science, assumptions are based on previous evidence, usually in the form of earlier research.

Thinking About the Environment

A wildfire is a type of wildland fire. It is an unplanned ignition that started naturally or by careless human action, either accidentally or intentionally. An ignition occurs when a fire is started.

Three conditions must be present for a fire to burn. Fire experts call the presence of these three conditions the fire triangle. The fire triangle includes the presence of fuel, oxygen, and a heat source (figure 1). Fuel is any flammable or burnable material. In the case of wildfires, fuel includes trees, grasses, brush, and even houses.

An illustration showing the fire triangle. The points of the triangle are oxygen, fuel, and heat. Fire is in the center of the triangle. — **Figure 1**. Three conditions must be present for a fire to burn: oxygen, fuel, and heat. The combination of these conditions is called the fire triangle.

FIND Outdoors illustration by Stephanie Pfeiffer.

More fuel causes a more intense fire, and dry fuels help the fire to spread (figure 2). Air provides the oxygen that a fire needs to burn. Heat sources help spark the wildfire and bring fuel to temperatures hot enough to ignite. Lightning, burning campfires, or cigarettes—and even the sun—can provide sufficient heat to spark a wildfire.

A densely wooded forest. — **Figure 2**. Forest fuels are found on the forest floor and may also include tree boles and tree crowns. Tree boles are tree trunks, and crowns are the leafy tops of trees.

Courtesy photo by Babs McDonald.

While wildfires can have undesirable effects, they are a natural process needed by most forests to remain healthy. Foresters sometimes set fires on purpose and manage them safely. These prescribed fires are used to keep ecosystems healthy and to reduce the amount of fuel available for a future wildfire.

Introduction

A poster featuring Smokey Bear's face and the text — **Figure 3**. Fire prevention education programs may include posters, such as this Smokey Bear poster. Poster courtesy of USDA National Agricultural Library.

Wildfire prevention education programs include those programs that teach people about wildfires and how to prevent them (figure 3). These programs are focused on wildfires caused by human actions. Humans may cause wildfires accidentally or on purpose. Accidentally caused wildfires include those caused by children at play, uncontrolled brush fires, unattended campfires, faulty power lines and electrical equipment, smoking materials, cars dragging chains or other metal, and railroads. Sparks from cars or trains can ignite the brush alongside a railroad track or road. Even parking on tall, dry grass may cause a wildfire to ignite. In contrast to accidentally caused wildfires, people may also cause wildfires on purpose (called arson).

Scientists have found that wildfire prevention education programs may reduce the number of accidentally caused wildfires. Although wildfire prevention education programs cost money, research has shown that wildfire prevention activities may cost less than it costs to suppress a wildland fire.

The scientists in this research study were interested in wildfire prevention education programs occurring on a special set of U.S. lands. These lands are Tribal lands across the United States (figure 4). The scientists were interested in learning whether wildfire prevention education programs conducted over a period of time were effective at reducing the number of accidentally caused wildfires on Tribal lands. The scientists also wanted to test for evidence as to whether the cost of suppressing wildfires was greater or less than the cost of wildfire prevention programs on Tribal lands.

**Figure 4**. U.S. Tribal lands are under the **governance** of American Indian Tribes and Native Alaskans. The United States Bureau of Indian Affairs, a Government bureau, works with American Indian Tribes and Native Alaskans to enhance their quality of life and to promote economic opportunity on Tribal lands.

U.S. Department of the Interior/U.S. Geological Survey map.

The first Smokey Bear poster featuring Smokey pouring water over a campfire.

What Are Wildfire Prevention Education Programs?

Wildfire prevention education programs include activities and games, posters and booklets, social media, billboards, and other resources. These resources provide information and challenge people to learn about and become more responsible for wildfire prevention. Smokey Bear is the mascot for the most well-known wildfire prevention program in the United States.

Learn More

Reflection Section

Methods

The scientists made a number of assumptions to conduct their research. First, the scientists made assumptions about what might cause or prevent accidental wildfires. The scientists assumed that three broad possible things cause or prevent accidental wildfires. These things included environmental conditions, social conditions, and wildfire prevention education programs.

Under each of these assumptions, the scientists identified variables to describe each of the things that might cause or prevent accidental wildfires (table 1).

A table listing the variables that might influence fire safety behavior — **Table 1**. The scientists identified variables that described each of the things assumed to be related to accidentally caused wildfire.

The scientists used weather information that had been collected by others. This information included air temperature, wind speed, and measures of drought and the likelihood of wildfire. A drought is a long period of dryness. Because natural areas may be severely impacted in a wildfire, the amount of available fuel was difficult to estimate. The scientists, therefore, used the amount of natural area burned previously as a measure of available fuels.

Two people wearing large packs walk on a trail in a forested area. — **Figure 5**. Roads, trails, and campgrounds provide opportunities for people to visit wildlands. Courtesy photo by Babs McDonald.

To identify a community’s opportunity to visit wildlands, the scientists measured the number of roads, trails, and campgrounds in and near the communities they studied (figure 5). The scientists assumed that easier access to wildlands would be related to more accidental wildfire occurrences.

The scientists collected information about income and unemployment rates in the communities. The scientists assumed that lower income and higher unemployment rates would result in more community dissatisfaction. This dissatisfaction might result in less care while in wildland environments and more accidentally caused wildfires. Communities with higher dissatisfaction were assumed to have a lower sense of well-being.

A person stands next to Smokey Bear and holds a sign that reads, — **Figure 6**. Wildfire prevention education programs include information provided at fairs and festivals. USDA Forest Service photo.

The scientists asked people working with the Tribes for information about wildfire prevention education programs (figure 6). Seventeen Tribes responded with information about programs started and conducted between 1996 and 2011. The scientists identified the months when wildfire prevention education programs were conducted. The scientists also collected information about how much each prevention program cost per year.

The scientists identified and counted the accidental causes of wildfires on the 17 Tribal lands (table 2).

Table 2. The causes of accidentally occurring wildfires by percentage of all wildfires on the 17 Tribal lands. Note that the percentage of all accidentally caused wildfires does not equal 100 percent. Other categories of wildfire causes, not included in this table, include arson and wildfires caused by natural events, such as lightning and volcanoes.
General cause	Specific cause	Percentage of all wildfires
Campfire	Cooking or warming fires	2
Smoking	Smoking	2
Fire use	Trash burning, field burning, land clearing, slash burning, natural resource management	16
Equipment	Aircraft, vehicle, exhaust, brakes, power lines	6
Children at play	Fireworks, ignition devices	14

Number Crunches

Reflection Section

Findings

The number of wildfire prevention education programs was most related to the number of wildfires caused by fire use and by children at play. Wildfire prevention programs were also related to the number of equipment-caused wildfires. Generally, as the number of education programs increased, the number of accidentally caused wildfires decreased.

The scientists found that the number of wildfires started from smoking cigarettes was not related to the prevention education programs. When the weather variables described dry and windy conditions, wildfires were more likely to occur.

According to the scientists’ calculations, wildfire prevention education programs were related to the number of accidentally caused wildfires on the 17 Tribal lands. Based on their research, the scientists were able to estimate how many wildfires were avoided on Tribal lands with wildfire prevention education programs (table 3).

Cause of wildland fire	Number of wildfires on Tribal lands with prevention programs	Estimated number of wildfires avoided on Tribal lands with prevention programs
Campfires	925	488
Smoking	434	0
Fire use	6,442	6,588
Children at play	6,134	2,925
Equipment	1,858	762
Total	15,793	10,763

The scientists compared the costs of wildfire prevention programs with the average cost of suppressing a wildfire. The scientists found that yearly prevention education program costs were less than the costs of suppressing wildfires.

What Is the Difference Between Relationship and Causation?

When scientists compare variables, they look for relationships between the variables. Relationships might be positive or negative.

A positive relationship is one in which the variables change in the same direction. For example, in this study, as the recorded air temperature rose, the number of wildfires also rose.

A negative relationship is one in which the variables change in different directions. In this study, for example, as the number of education programs rose, the number of accidentally caused wildfires fell.

Scientists look for relationships but rarely feel certain that one condition caused another. That kind of certainty takes many research studies to establish.

Reflection Section

Discussion

This research indicates that wildfire prevention education programs may reduce the number of accidentally caused wildfires. The scientists believe, however, that more research is needed to better understand the effects of wildland fire prevention programs conducted over longer periods of time.

A statue of Smokey Bear stands next to a sign that reads "Smokey Bear Zone" at the Smithsonian National Zoo in Washington, DC.

Smokey Bear has been working to prevent wildfires since 1944. The Smokey Bear Wildfire Prevention campaign is the longest-running public service advertising campaign in U.S. history. This campaign has been educating generations of Americans about their role in preventing wildfires.

Reflection Section

Adapted from Abt, K.L.; Butry, D.T.; Prestemon, J.P.; Scranton, S. 2015. Effect of fire prevention programs on accidental and incendiary wildfires on Tribal lands in the United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24(6): 749 762.

Part Of

A Burning Question - Vol. 1 No. 19

Explore Full Monograph

Karen Abt

Forest Economist

My favorite science experience has been working on fire-related questions. There is so much we don’t know about wildfire and its role in our forests and, in particular, its role...
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David Butry

Economist/Resource Economist

My favorite science experience was calculating the cost effectiveness of fire sprinklers in homes. This required determining how much it costs to install and maintain fire sprinklers. It also required...
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Jeff Prestemon

Forest Economist

My favorite science experience has been uncovering evidence that some wildfire arsonists set many wildfires over a few days in bursts of fire setting. I also learned that arsonists likely...
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Samuel Scranton

Forester

My favorite science experience is when I get to go back to places I worked a long time ago as a forester. When I go back to these places, I...
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Standards addressed in this Article:

What Is a Natural Inquirer Monograph?

3 Natural Inquirer monograph covers.

A Natural Inquirer monograph is a short publication that focuses on a single research study. Monographs are written for a middle school audience, but they can also be adapted for both high school students and advanced upper elementary students.

Monographs include:

One article based on a published, peer-reviewed research paper; the article keeps the research paper format (see more below) but is written in language students can understand.
A FACTivity, which is an activity to complete after reading the article. The FACTivity helps reinforce major science concepts from the article. These activities are designed to be easy to implement, with few material requirements and options for adapting them for your audience or available resources. Some monograph may have two FACTivities.
A short “Welcome to the monograph” article about key background information and science concepts.
A glossary of new terms from the article or the introductory materials.
A list of related Natural Inquirer publications as well as outside references.
Standards correlations, including Next Generation Science Standards, addressed in both the article and the FACTivity.

Monographs may also include additional essays (called spotlights), other activities (like crossword puzzles or vocabulary challenges), and more.

A screenshot of the article resource tile for "A Flame Changer" showing the three different format option buttons.

Reading Modes

Monographs are available in three different formats:

Hard copies can be ordered from the website and shipped, all free of charge.
PDF versions of the printed monograph can be downloaded free on the website. The PDF version directly replicates the content and layout of the printed version.
The “Read Distraction Free” option allows the monograph article to open in its own window, without the rest of the website being visible. “Read Distraction Free” is available on the article version of the monograph, which can be opened under the “Articles” tab. This version allows readers to scroll to particular sections of the article using the sidebar menu on the left side of the screen. This version also has interactive Reflection Sections and Number Crunches. Students can enter their answers, submit them, and then receive the correct answers to double-check their work. Submitted answers are not saved on the website and will disappear once the window is closed.

What's in a Natural Inquirer Article?

Here, we'll go into more detail about the parts of a Natural Inquirer article and give you some ideas about how they can be used.

Meet the Scientists
This section introduces the scientists (and others) who worked on the study. In their own words, they each share a memorable science experience, a favorite research project, or something they learned during the course of their education or research.

Use this section to:
- Introduce kids to the variety of people who work in science
- Introduce kids to the variety of scientific fields and give brief descriptions of science-related jobs
- Explore ways that people interact with science every day
Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Crosscutting Concepts: Influence of Science, Engineering, and Technology on Society and the Natural World
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many of the scientists and engineers featured in this section are also featured on our collector cards. Learn more about their work, how they got interested in their fields, and interesting projects they worked on. Cards can be printed as posters, too.
Thinking About Science
This section briefly describes a concept about science or scientific research. This overview can touch on topics like
- study type (longitudinal study, quantitative vs. qualitative data),
- behaviors of scientists (conducting literature reviews, collaborating with other specialists, replicating earlier studies),
- the practice of science (the scientific method, engineering design, data collection, randomization, controls and variables),
- or other aspects of science (bias, correlation vs. causation).
Use this section to:
- Reinforce steps in the scientific method and the process of science
- Encourage students to think about the practice of science and what it can and cannot tell us
- Consider the many types of scientific study and what information each type can provide
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Science and Engineering Practices
- Life Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for other or related scientific topics on our website (e.g. “longitudinal study,” “bias,” or “sampling”).
Thinking About the Environment
This section provides a brief overview of a topic or concept in environmental/life science. The topic or concept is directly related to the research study that follows. Examples of topics include the carbon cycle, the water cycle, habitat fragmentation, phenology, biodiversity, and ecosystem services.

Use this section to:
- Provide important background information to help students understand the research study
- Serve as a quick reference during reading or class instruction
- Connect the research article with other activities or media on the same topic
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

You can use key words to search for more resources on life or earth science topics on our website (e.g. “habitat,” “carbon,” or “genetics”).
Introduction
This section begins the scientific article format. Much like the published, peer-reviewed study this article is based on, the introduction provides background information for the study – what is currently known and what remains unknown. The introduction culminates in the question(s) the study hopes to answer.

The introduction is also the first section with a Reflection Section. This section includes two or three questions to help kids reflect on what they’ve just learned in the Introduction. If they are using the online distraction-free reading mode, they can answer these questions directly on the website.

Use this section to:
- Review important background information that kids need to understand the study
- Connect the study to the concepts addressed in the Thinking About Science and Thinking About the Environment sections
- Understand research questions and hypotheses, including generating their own hypotheses given what they already know
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use one of the guided reading lesson plans to help kids follow the format of a scientific paper.
Methods
This section is the nuts and bolts of the study design – the who, what, when, where, why, and how of the research. Contained within the Methods section are usually maps of the study location or the set-up of study plots, as well as details about what data was collected and how.

The Methods section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Show students how experiments and studies are designed and carried out
- Explore sampling methods and randomization
- Introduce various data collection tools (e.g. camera traps, surveys, insect collection tools, weather stations, etc.)
- Explain bias and how studies are designed to remove bias
- Help students gain experience with map reading
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Many Methods and Findings sections contain Number Crunches, which are simple math exercises designed to help students interact with the data from the study.
Findings
This section summarizes the data collected during the study. The Findings section usually includes data tables or graphs and highlights the significant data points from the study. This section often mentions statistical analysis or the use of computer programs to model or analyze the data, though these methods are only discussed generally.

The Findings section also ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Have students practice reading and interpreting graphs and tables
- Compare results between variables and controls
- Explain the concept of statistical significance
- Discuss how no data or negative results still provide valuable information
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Search the website for “map” or “graph” to find activities where students can practice making and reading maps and graphs.
Discussion
This section concludes each monograph article. In it, we summarize the main findings of the scientists’ study. Additionally, we present the scientists’ ideas about the limitations of their study, the big-picture impacts of their research, and the scientists’ plans for future study or action.

The Discussion section ends with a Reflection Section – two or three questions to help students think through what they just read, especially general take-aways from the study. These questions are interactive on the distraction-free reading mode.

Use this section to:
- Discuss what conclusions can and cannot be drawn from the available data
- Explain the difference between correlation and causation
- Explore study limitations and opportunities for further study
- Brainstorm ways the study findings could be applied to real-world situations
Next Generation Science Standards applications:
- Life Science and some Earth Science Disciplinary Core Ideas (depending on topic)
- Most Crosscutting Concepts (depending on topic)
Note that specific standards for this particular monograph are linked on this educator guide tab.

Other resources:

Use the “Designing Your Own Study” resource page for videos of scientists discussing their own research studies. The page also includes educator resources to help students plan their own scientific studies.

Additional Resources on the Website

A screenshot of the product tabs for an NI monograph On the website, we pair each monograph with a variety of other resources, as well. Use the tabs on the product page to browse through the following:

Related activities, including the FACTivity for each article
An “About” essay that gives some larger context for the research the scientists conducted or more information about the science topic from the article
A glossary of all boldfaced terms from the article
A “Scientists and Collaborators” page that lists the people involved in the study; click on a researcher to reach their bio page and see what other articles they might be featured in
A “Related Content” page that lists both Natural Inquirer resources about similar topics and also outside reference materials

Article Selection and Review

Natural Inquirer partners with the USDA Forest Service, so we source research studies by Forest Service scientists that have been peer-reviewed and published in reputable journals. Some of our articles have also been created in collaboration with scientists from other Federal agencies, such as U.S. Geological Survey and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, universities, and other non-profits.

All monograph articles are reviewed by scientists who conducted the original research study to verify scientific accuracy. Monographs are also reviewed by student editorial review boards of middle or high school students before publication. Additionally, all monographs are reviewed by the Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture before publication.

A screenshot of the citation for "Lights, Camera, Tracks" Every monograph article includes a citation of its source study. Many educators pair the original research paper with our article to help more advanced students learn how to read formal research papers. The monograph article then serves as adapted primary literature, bridging the two articles.

Lessons

Lead students through an analysis of a Natural Inquirer article starting first with identification of key words and key phrases. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
Lesson Plan – Key Words, Key Phrases
Lead students through an analysis of a Natural Inquirer article starting first with identification of key words and key phrases. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
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Students are assigned different sections of a Natural Inquirer article and work together to create a summary. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
Lesson Plan – Jigsaw Summary
Students are assigned different sections of a Natural Inquirer article and work together to create a summary. This lesson plan can be used with any Natural Inquirer article.
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This lesson plan introduces students to the important components of a simple newspaper article and then has students write a newspaper article sharing information from a Natural Inquirer article. This...
Lesson Plan – Newspaper Article
This lesson plan introduces students to the important components of a simple newspaper article and then has students write a newspaper article sharing information from a Natural Inquirer article. This...
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Part Of

Where There's Smoke, There's Fire (Time Warp Monograph Series) - Vol. 1 No. 14

Education Files

Project Learning Tree

If you are a trained Project Learning Tree educator, you may use “Then and Now,” “Democracy in Action,” and “Living With Fire” as additional resources.

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Journals & Monographs

Collector Cards

Readers

Coloring and Activity Books

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FACTivity – A Burning Question

Glossary

arson

arsonist

duration

fictional

governance

hypothesize

ignite

irrelevant

model

prescribed fire

suppress

Tribal

variable

wildland fire

Karen Abt

David Butry

Jeff Prestemon

Samuel Scranton

Standards addressed in this Article:

What Is a Natural Inquirer Monograph?

Reading Modes

What's in a Natural Inquirer Article?

Meet the Scientists

Thinking About Science

Thinking About the Environment

Introduction

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Additional Resources on the Website

Article Selection and Review

Lessons

Lesson Plan – Key Words, Key Phrases

Lesson Plan – Jigsaw Summary

Lesson Plan – Newspaper Article

Education Files

Project Learning Tree

Additional Resources

USDA Forest Service: Managing Fire

Smokey Bear

National Interagency Fire Center